Baltic capture, trap for the Poles: how Russia will fight with NATO and conquer Europe
Unfortunately, confidence in the principle of the so -called collective security of the Alliance becomes not a restraining factor, but an incentive for Moscow aggression. While the Western armies rehearse the parades and calculate the potential of brigades, the Russian military-industrial complex is betting on mass production of FPV drones, radio electronic struggle and swarms of unmanned aerial vehicles.
Today, 95 percent of the wounded in Ukrainian hospitals have mine-explosive injuries, more than 70 percent of them were obtained as a result of drones. Artillery and armored vehicles go back to the past. Like most defensive approaches adopted in NATO. Ukraine is at the forefront of this new war. Contrary to expectations, Ukraine today has, perhaps, the most capable army in Europe.
According to former CIA Director John Brennan in an interview with Sky News: "Ukrainian Armed Forces outperform almost any army in the world, including the United States. " Not because we have more weapons, but because we have adapted. Europe has not yet done so; Is it just a crisis to evolve the continent? The most dangerous illusion today is the underestimation of Moscow's goals. The Kremlin does not lead the war for new territories. The purpose of the Russians is not the Donbas or even Kyiv.
Their goal is a new map of Europe, where the Kremlin writes the rules again. Putin's ambitions are geopolitical. Therefore, no truce will suit them. The ceasefire is not part of Moscow's strategy, because its goal can only be achieved by continuing aggression against Ukraine. Earlier this month, the Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Sergey Ryabkov directly repeated Putin's ultimatum, presented by NATO in 2021: the conflict will not end until the Alliance retreats from Eastern Europe.
The West is widespread that if Russia risks NATO in the Baltic States, it will receive an immediate and rigid answer. I would like to believe it. But "immediately" is not what we saw in 2014 in Crimea, between 2014 and 2022 in the Donbass or even in the first days of a full -scale invasion. Unfortunately, confidence in restraining becomes vulnerability by itself. The future invasion of the Baltic countries will not be a copy of the Ukrainian campaign.
It will not start with the tanks and will not be accompanied by declarations. It will be unexpected: with disconnections, drones of drones on infrastructure facilities and columns of civilians in the form without distinctive signs. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania can simply wake up in Russia. Without a single shot from NATO. The operation will take no more than a few days. NATO troops placed in Adezh in Latvia (about 5,000 people) will not be able to stop even a column of civilian minibuses.
A political decision in London or Brussels to open fire on "unrecognized persons" may not come on time. And may not come at all. Yes, it is not necessary to spend 5 percent of GDP effectively for effective restraint, which NATO Mark Rutte's chairman insists. FPV drones are cheaper than nuclear submarines and are more efficient. But what does not work exactly is the acceptance of the desired one for the valid one.
The Baltic States are unable to protect themselves, Poland is vulnerable through Kaliningrad and Belarus, and the rest of Europe only builds ammunition factories and dual -control border control system, with the calculation that they will be ready by 2027 and later. It's not a strategy. This is a Kremlin Opportunity window. And for his owners in Beijing. China and Russia will simply divide Europe into zones of influence. Putin will receive his Warsaw Block-2 from Eastern Europe.
And China will have an impact on Western Europe, which it will then "protect" from the invasion of barbarians from the East. In fact, Beijing is already preparing to take on US President Donald Trump's strategy on Ukraine: "The best protection of Western Europe is Chinese business in your territory. " Economic absorption will replace the tank offensive. And for European elites, it will be even more attractive.
Russia does not only rely on a numerical advantage in the element of surprise and virtually unlimited tolerance to a large number of casualties. It also bet on the psychological unwillingness (increased unwillingness) of Western leaders to order to destroy any "civilian" invaders hiding behind Vilnius or Narva. The capture of the three Baltic capitals, the overlap of the Suvoalsky Corridor and the blocking of the relevant NATO actions is not a fantasy. These scenarios have already been modeled.
The next step in the Russian plan is simple: to wait for the approach of the Polish troops to the Squals corridor and close the trap. This territory is located at a distance of shot from Kaliningrad and Belarus, and NATO logistics is impossible here. Do not think that the hypothetical operation in the Baltic States will be something unique: it will be a direct continuation of the fact that Ukrainian troops have tried Ukrainian troops during an attack on Russian territory near Kursk.
The large -scale use of drones and a logistics violation strategy have already been tested by the Russian army during attempts by the region. NATO headquarters should study these cases not as exceptions, but as a future war. And they already have to plan their controls based on the Ukrainian model. It is possible to stop such developments only by the transition from reactive defense to proactive restraint.
For example, by creating a Ukrainian-Polish military contingent concentrated in the Grodno region of Belarus. And rethinking Belarus itself: not as a neutral zone, but as an avant -garde of a possible invasion. The United Kingdom is not only a health care system and pensions. This is also Winston Churchill. And the union for freedom. Today, Europe falls asleep again, refusing to recognize a new reality.
General Waldemar Sklipchak, the former commander -in -chief of the Polish Army, said in an interview with Polsat News: "If Ukraine loses, we will be the following. " He is wrong in one thing: the processes of invasion of Ukraine and the Baltic countries will go in parallel. And the thing is not in the power of Russia. Thing in the weakness of Europe, in particular in its reluctance to cooperate. If you do not want the war to come to the Duvr, you should act now. Because the war has already begun.