All cards in China's hands: how Xi Jinping turned into a chief player and Russia into his vassal
Unlike Orban and Fitzo, who can still maneuver between Brussels, Moscow and Washington; Unlike Central Asia, which can balance between Moscow and Beijing, Putin has no place to maneuver, there is no one to balance. Playing in the multi -polar world ended for Russia with a dead end. As expected in 2022, a player, in which all cards, come to the arena. They have been there for a long time, but there were three bloody years.
China has to say its word, but what will it be? China's strategic goal is the world dominance masked by the "Community of the Common Fate of Humanity. " This idea, which is the official foreign policy doctrine of China, is based on the understanding that the world is facing global challenges that cannot be solved alone, so it is better to cope with them together under the guidance of the older brother, the strongest and most wise. Who is this older brother, guess.
(In general, the Chinese look at the world is that China has always been a leading civilization of mankind, but it has been humiliating from this position in the last 200 years, and now it returns to its rightful place. It is not true: China was a leading civilization for 1200 years, conditionally from 550 to 1750, the rest of the time.
The victory of Russia? No, it is not necessary, because it will mean the strengthening of Russia, the acquisition of greater status, as well as the consolidation in the international practice of the right to strongly change the borders of the weak. This is not required China. Does China need the defeat of Russia? No, because it means the strengthening of the Western world, which is certainly part of Ukraine.
Russian defeat also means the likely collapse of Russia, after which various parts of it will try to distance themselves from China (Turkic and Mongolian peoples are afraid and hated), although some other parts will be glad to fall into Chinese embrace. So, maybe China needs an endless continuation of the war? No, because it increases the risks against the background of negative economic dynamics. What is the best option for China? And the one we have now. The war continues, but no one wins.
The war continues, but resources for war are exhausted. At the same time, everyone is afraid of escalation, and it pushes the weak in the arms of China, and the strong makes mistakes. In the interests of China, Russia is weak, but aggressive; holistic, but completely dependent; The war is endless but not hot; the ability to manage uncertainty and deprive others of such opportunities; The ability to use Russia as a ram, but stay behind the scenes, collecting prey.
From this point of view, China is as best for China: the key Chinese problems: so the Chinese strategy on Russia will combine: how does Ukrainian interest then look like? In our interests, that Russia would fall apart and not be able to serve as a Chinese instrument, but that it can happen neatly and not chaotic, before China takes everything under control. The author expresses a personal opinion that may not coincide with the editorial position.