The third is not superfluous: with what calculation Ukraine initiates a new round of negotiations with Russia
In particular, President Volodymyr Zelensky said that the NSDC Secretary Rustem Umerov offered the Russians to meet this week. Having emphasized that the negotiation dynamics should be increased, the head of state summarized: “In particular, it is necessary to do everything to reach the ceasefire. For your part, the Russian side should stop hiding from decisions. The exchange of prisoners. Return of children. Termination of killings.
And a leadership meeting is needed to really provide peace - really long. Ukraine is ready for such a meeting. " It should be noted that at the previous meetings, which took place on May 16 and June 2, delegations from Ukraine and the Russian Federation agreed on the exchange of prisoners of war, and presented each other memorandums on ceasefire conditions.
Putin then noted that the proposals of the two countries are the opposite, "but negotiations are organized and conducted to seek ways of rapprochement. " At the same time, in one of the recent interviews, President Zelensky emphasized that Russia understands only the language of power, and therefore - the re -equipment of Ukraine is the factor that will force the Kremlin to return to the negotiation table.
Putin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, commenting on Sunday, on July 20, a new "talk" of Kiev, stated that the Kremlin head seeks "to translate Ukrainian settlement into a peaceful river", but the goals of Moscow remain unchanged: It is a long process, it requires effort, and it is not easy . . . The main thing is to achieve our goals. Our goals are clear, obvious and they do not change.
" It is known that at the beginning of a full-scale invasion in February 2022 he called the key goals of the Russian Federation "denacification" and "demilitarization" of Ukraine at the beginning of a full-scale invasion. Currently, the Kremlin is declared the need to eliminate the so -called "root causes" of war, including taboo for Ukraine's membership in NATO, etc. Roszma, reporting a peaceful thematic case, state that the third round can really happen in Istanbul.
The main viewer of negotiations between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is Donald Trump, the leading expert of the National Institute for Strategic Studies Ivan Us. In particular, in a conversation with focus, the analyst said: “The first two talking rounds were most accurately observed by the White House Head, because he has such an opinion that if it is a lot to help Ukraine, it will give up a peace agreement and try to defeat Russia in physically.
It is not advisable to show Trump to Ukraine, because it will simply stop helping us. Actually, that is why Ukraine initiates a new meeting in Istanbul. " At the same time, according to the expert, Ukraine is unlikely to have serious expectations from the third negotiation round, except for the results of the exchange of prisoners. “And the exchange of prisoners is just very, very good, not to say the best result.
Since it is hardly possible to stop the war with these meetings, the return of our people is an extremely important point. Not that exchanges would not be without these meetings, but it is after them that everything happens promptly and scale. I get the impression that Ukraine goes to these communication steps with Moscow for the return of people and in principle there is no question to our authorities, since the basic value is, of course, people.
It is important not only the living but also the bodies of the dead, ”Ivan Us emphasizes. Kyiv, the expert believes, we need to continue to demonstrate Trump that Ukraine is ready to move in the direction of the peace agreement, "but in order for this agreement to eventually see the world, we need to give even more weapons. " The key problem of a peace-diplomatic track, the expert emphasizes, is that Trump does not want to recognize the difference between his worldview and reality.
“He (US President - Focus) should already move to the stage that Russia is an aggressor that seeks to destroy Ukraine. And in order that the United States would not be defeated in the globally political arena from China, which was a recent statement by van and signed that it was on the side of Russia in its war with Ukraine, Washington must be significantly intensified in support of Kiev.
The US should clearly understand that if Beijing does not want Moscow's defeat and America wants to defeat China, then they need to win Russia. This is the formula. So we have to only wait for Trump to make the right decision. In fact, he goes to this decision for a very long time, but the very fact of what goes is good, ”Ivan Us sums up.
At the same time, political scientist Oleg Posternak emphasizes in conversation with focus: “Despite the fact that in fact, the peace-inter-core process generally resembles a game in front of President Trump, this track is really important and here we should come from criteria that are not modeled by us: the character of the White House, and the character. We need negotiations further to tear out their initiative from Russia's paws, as if they were more interested in the peaceful process.
In fact, the Russian Federation has been torpedo of the US-Ukrainian initiative to cease fire since March. Therefore, for Ukraine, priority, weighing and speed in mastering and updating this topic is a critical technology. That is, we show that we are not just not against negotiations, but are extremely interested in them.
" The expert predicts that the third round of negotiations, as well as the previous two, will relate to humanitarian issues, in particular, the exchange of prisoners of war and the return of bodies. “It is quite possible to break the topic of hostage exchange and return Ukrainian children, because the Russians are not very, to say the least, they are burning with the desire to discuss it.
As for the issue of ceasefire, here Russia, I suppose, can go to some maneuvers, such as offering such a mode at least at sea. This is for the Kremlin, perhaps even more profitable than for Ukraine, given its desire to return to the base of its Black Sea Fleet.
In general, I believe that the third talk round will become a technical and administrative, where they will discuss the issues of the gray zone, the removal of bodies from the battlefield, interaction of special services at different levels, etc. ”,-emphasizes Oleg Posternak.
As for political issues, such as discussing the "peaceful memoranda" projects or a meeting at the highest - the presidential level, then the political scientist predicts, it is unlikely to be in this direction at least some changes. At the same time, the expert emphasizes, for Ukraine in the context of a talking process with the Russian Federation, the key factor is to maintain Donald Trump's commitment.
And if, for this, Oleg Posternak notes, you need to motivate new negotiations, it should be done. At the same time, the real steps to establish peace, the political scientist, will be taken only when "in the Putin's head matures the understanding of the price of war", and specifically what is more profitable to stop it than to continue.