Moscow Exchange without currency. As the US and Britain beat on the finances of the Russian Federation and what will it end
OAC, the US Mine Finnish unit, which was responsible for sanctions, added the Moscow Exchange, the National Clearing Center and the National Depository of the Russian Federation to the sanction list. Already today, the bidding and the euro on the exchange do not take place, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation stated that the exchange rate of Yuan Rubl will set a trajectory for all currencies in Russia.
On June 13, it became known that the United Kingdom also introduced an analogous package. Focus examined why Ukraine's partners strengthen sanctions against the aggressor and what the consequences will have. About 50% of all foreign exchange foreign economic transactions in Russia were passed through the Moscow Exchange, says financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn.
"Exchange is a technological structure that provided currency quotations, purchase, sale of currency by all bidders, and companies, including transnational, and banks. Now, in fact, 50% of the market is excluded. It is about the termination The market will need to look for alternative channels to provide currency transactions.
In fact, today, on June 13, there are consequences of making Mosburg in the list of sanctions - in particular, the course jump - in the country's exchangers the course of buying a dollar in some places exceeds the mark of 100 rubles. However, experts emphasize that the consequences of new sanctions are not only a devaluating ruble, but more importantly, the slowing of investment activity in the aggressor country, as well as an increase in the dependence of the Russian economy on Beijing.
"With Mosbirzh and the dollar exchange rate in Russia, it all depends only on the actions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. So far, it does not look ready for such turn. The first reaction of the Russian" Bazaar " - the escape of capital from the securities market and deposits in currency, the collapse of stock indexes. Sanctions to Mosbiri have a similar impact on the Russian market, as a rebellion of Prigogine, a strong psychological effect-the effect of "shot Aurora". state banks.
In his opinion, the first reaction of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which declared the trade of Yuan as the main currency of the country, is also interesting.
"If the Central Bank goes further and makes all the exchange rate formation in the foreign exchange market will go through Yuan, and the rates of other currencies will be determined to the ruble mechanically through the rates of yuan, then it will simply lead to the self -proclaimed dependence of Russians on the monetary policy of the PRC. That is, the devaluation of the euro will automatically mean the devaluation of the ruble to the euro.
, and the sanctions to Mosburg are another effective step towards this. Andriy Nesteruk, analyst, head of the strategic planning department in the international financial company Finteum, in conversation with Focus noted that sanctions to the Moscow exchange will complicate pricing in the foreign exchange market of Russia. "On the Moscow Stock Exchange there were quite noticeable volumes of trade in dollars and euros.
Coverel contracts they have 105 billion rubles a day by dollar (this is data for June 11). These are dollar bidding, and then still auction of Euro-ruble On the day, and still a dollar for 6 billion. However, this does not mean that Russian importers will not be able to buy dollars and euros, or will have difficulty from exporters who will sell currency.
First of all, the result of the stopping of the Mosbryzh will be higher commission expenses that will bear companies and businesses in the Russian Federation, which will need to buy or sell dollars or euros. "There will be wider spreads between buying and selling, buying or selling currencies will be more difficult. It will be especially difficult for small companies, small banks, for them will significantly increase the cost of such currency transactions.
In addition, there will be no market price of currency, there will . An important consequence of the new package of sanctions is the reduction of Russian sales activity by companies from so -called "friendly" to the aggressor of countries. That is, it is likely that a decrease in import activity by Turkey, Armenia, Kazakhstan and a number of other countries with which the Russian Federation is active.
"Other companies, foreign structures, will be afraid to fall under these sanctions, because they already see that it is very real. When we see that the restrictions also touched on" Turkish friends of Moscow, "it has an impact on others who were just about to cooperate With Russia. .
Due to the fact that the Moscow Exchange under sanctions, even Chinese companies can be afraid to work through this exchange, for example, to buy gas through it, experts say, that is, it is about the effect of secondary sanctions. When foreign corporations or businesses are forced to give up contracts if the final recipient of the goods is a structure from Russia. After all, such companies may also be subject to sanctions.
"There will be a problem no longer that the dollar and the euro cannot be used, but the problem will be afraid to work on the Moscow Exchange through secondary sanctions. The Moscow Exchange under sanctions, even Chinese companies can be afraid to work through this exchange, for example, buy gas through it, " - said Andrei Nesteruk. Vitaliy Shapran also says that new events from the United States and Britain should strengthen the effect of secondary sanctions.
"The effect of secondary sanctions that banks from India and the PRC do not like; the cost and time of payments for goods and services when paying imports are likely," the expert explained. But new sanctions of partners of Ukraine do not make it impossible to buy drones or components needed for the manufacture of weapons.