Winter without light. As Russia is waiting for Ukraine's energy surrender and whether it can be avoided

The situation in energy is such that Anatoly Amelin analytics is unclear how Ukraine will take place. Immediate emergency measures are needed, and it offers a crisis plan . . . This time everything is very bad. I'm about energy. You know, I try not to comment on public issues of energy, my focus is more on the economy. But now the scenario that opens to us through energy is very, very bad. Ukrainian energy has lost more than 9 gigawatts (!) Due to Russia's terrorist actions.

We have destroyed shunting generation, and the enemy already beats transformer substations involved in the transit of imported electricity from Europe (1700 MW + 250 MW of emergency aid). 1 GW of gas generation, which the President in Berlin spoke is possible, but the lion's share will be built by privateers for their needs. Ukraine is negotiating to increase electricity imports from Europe to more than 2 GW. But this is still not enough.

According to Ukrenergo, the urgent need of Ukraine is 5-6 GW of new shunting capacities (!). We have more than 30% of the power system deficiency in all hours (even at night). On June 27, 2023, the Cabinet resolution on allocation of UAH 10 billion to protect critical infrastructure came into force.

On September 15, 2023, the press service of the VRU apparatus published a report on the approval of almost UAH 19 billion for the same purposes (the State Agency for the Restoration and Development of Infrastructure of Ukraine in the amount of UAH 8. 8 billion, and the Ministry of Energy of Ukraine in the amount of UAH 9. 7 billion). On April 1, 2024, another UAH 4. 5 billion was known.

For their part, "Our Money" estimated that according to the reports of regional renewal and infrastructure services on operations for the creation of electrical substations from missile firing in July 2023, 21 contracts were concluded in different regions of Ukraine for UAH 36 billion. So, it is already a minimum of UAH 50-60 billion (!). We see the result of protection. And here the following scenarios are opened: 1.

It is not possible (technically, first of all) to provide Ukraine with its own generation, shunting capacity and import from Europe. Accordingly, they will be blacklight for 10-14 hours a day without light (this is due to imports from Europe). 2. Russia will gladly accept the surrender of Ukraine, synchronize our power system with its (as it used to be) and will give light 24 hours a day. This is actually a scenario they drew. And their agents in Ukraine help to realize.

What scenario will we choose? I do not want to believe that the lack of protection of energy in Ukraine and their destruction is a planned action for the implementation of the second scenario! But the third scenario, which I do not hear in the authorities, is also possible: it is the introduction of a state of emergency due to the situation in energy and creation of anti -crisis energy headquarters.

Given the martial law, threats to the country and the role of the president today I believe that such a headquarters should be coordinated from the Presidential Office. After all, he, where, is subject to the Cabinet of Ministers, NSDCs and the largest faction in parliament. And this issue is no less important than the organization of a counter -offensive.

We will go to the worship of Russia by the light, how do they want ??? Of course not! So, yesterday, the anti -crisis headquarters should be created and the anti -crisis plan is being implemented, which provides: here is another good list of additional steps. If this is not, it is difficult for me to tell how we will go this winter, but I will say, Ukrainians will not accept Russian electricity in our sockets in any case.