Peace-good, peace at any cost-no: why Russia wins more than Ukraine from ceasefire in the Black Sea

Putin would not want a ceasefire on the Black Sea-after he was broken there, Naval Expert Charps in the column for The Telegraph shouting there. That is why the agreement concluded in Riyadh looks like Russia and Ukraine agreed to cease fire in the Black Sea than Ukraine and Ukraine, according to a recent White House statement.

It is specifically said: "The United States and Russia have agreed to ensure safe navigation, make it impossible to use force and prevent the use of commercial vessels for military purposes in the Black Sea.

" And further: "The United States will help restore Russia's access to the world market for agricultural exports and fertilizers, reduce the cost of maritime transportation, expand access to ports and payment systems for such operations, develop measures to implement President Trump and President Presidential Agreement. In this regard, there are three questions.

First, is this the first hint of progress in the ceasefire in the war in general, which still looked unlikely? Secondly, how will it affect the Black Sea port trade and will it affect at all? Third, what will it mean to such a difficult maritime domination of Ukraine? It is too early to speak about the first question.

There are many praise words in the release of Saudi Arabia, and it is worth noting that before the negotiations, the United States said that the armistice in the Black Sea would turn into a wider ceasefire. The question of how it will affect trade is interesting. Ukraine's maritime domination was so great that since the beginning of 2024 exports and imports to Ukraine and from it in any case was at a level close to the pre-war.

The strikes made in 2023 with the help of a well -planned and executed combination of special forces, missiles and drones, effectively displaced the Black Sea Fleet from Sevastopol - it almost hid in the eastern part of the sea. With the exception of constantly present threats of floating mines and random strategically risky missile shots, freedom of navigation for Ukrainians was mostly restored. The economy of Ukraine and the countries that depend on its grain are interested in not changing.

Russians who have been defeated by Ukrainians in the naval sphere seem to benefit from ceasefire. Earlier, I wrote that the Black Sea Fleet, which came out of the shelter and got the opportunity to walk where it pleases, could threaten the maritime dominance of Ukraine and, accordingly, trade status quo.

If the peace process comes to the fact that Turkey will remove the restriction on the passage through the Bosphorus provided for by the Montre Convention, again allowing the passage of Russian warships, it can become a catastrophe.

I think that the latter is unlikely, but in the meantime, the fleet that is allowed to regroup, replenish stocks and act in the western part of the sea without fear may be more dangerous, and if the truce does not comply with, it will get more opportunities to restore the attack. In general, it is a comforting event, although it is too early to judge who wins from it.