Exhaustion of Russia - by the end of spring 2026: when and how the war will end according to a realistic scenario
If Ukraine increases the pace to 4-5 successful (!) strikes per week, by February 2026, 50-60% of Russia's processing capacity can be withdrawn. This will create a critical (!) fuel situation for the Russian army and economy. In the spring of 2026, the cumulative effect may force (!) Moscow to negotiate. But forcing negotiations absolutely does not guarantee a stop to the war. And there was no final answer to the question of when and how hostilities will stop and what the world will guarantee us.
After all, there are much more stakeholders in the war than Ukraine – Russia – the USA. There are also the EU, China, Turkey, and the countries of the Arab world. And everyone has their own motivations for both continuing the war in Ukraine and stopping it. Based on this, we continue our research and, having made a detailed map of stakeholders and their motivations (pro and contra), conducted simulations using game theory to find the Nash equilibrium.
Let me remind you that after the recent meeting in Washington on October 17, which brought more questions than answers, everyone is concerned about the main question: what next? The previous, most likely scenario of a "freeze" has been rejected, and we have found ourselves at a new point of uncertainty. In our team, we decided to move away from emotions and predictions based on the current tactical situation at the front.
Instead, we took a rigorous scientific approach to find the most likely way to end the war. How did we look into the future? We used two powerful tools: Our analysis confirms: in the current configuration, none of the key players is interested (!!!) in peace on someone else's terms. The price of continuing the war is lower for them than the risks of ending it: Conclusion — as long as the "payment matrix" remains the same, the war will continue.
To stop it, you need to change the cost of continuing to fight one of the key combatants. Our simulations show that the most likely path to a ceasefire is not a decisive victory on the battlefield or a comprehensive peace treaty. This is the achievement of a state called "Mutually Hurting Stalemate" in game theory. This is a situation where the costs of continuing the war for both belligerents (Russia and Ukraine) become so unbearably high that they exceed any perceived benefits.
It is at this point that a ceasefire becomes the least bad option for everyone. The key conditions that will bring the system to this equilibrium: When these three conditions meet, the Kremlin's rational strategy will not be to continue the war, but to find ways to a truce to preserve the regime. For Ukraine, exhausted by Russian strikes on its own energy (64% of generation destroyed), a ceasefire will be an acceptable option for preserving statehood. (!) This will be the point of balance.
Forecast: When will the "Painful Pat" come? Our Monte Carlo analysis, which takes into account the current intensity of strikes (3-4 per week) and plans to increase the production of drones, shows that the critical threshold of economic damage to Russia can most likely be reached by the end of spring 2026 (!). The way to end the war lies not through negotiations, which Russia does not want, but through the creation of intolerable conditions for it.
For the first time in a long time, Ukraine has a strategic lever that does not directly depend on the supply of Western missiles. To accelerate the achievement of the Nash Equilibrium, Ukraine needs to focus on four areas: The road to peace will be long and painful. But for the first time in a long time, its contours are becoming clear and calculated (!). It will not be easy for us.
As long as we finish the energy and oil infrastructure, the enemy will hit our rear, energy and civilian facilities, counting on chaos and collapse from our side. But we are Ukrainians, we will manage! Strategic endurance, reliance on own forces and European allies - this is the formula that can stop this war. P. S. Warning: this text is not a prediction, but the result of modeling the most likely scenario based on the placement of forces, motivations, and interests of all stakeholders today.