Back to the USSR: How Russia is sliding towards a 1991-style economic collapse

State Duma deputy Mykola Arefiev said that in connection with the budget deficit, the authorities are looking for new sources of replenishment of the state treasury — and these steps will inevitably affect the wallets of ordinary Russians. According to him, the current economic policy is reduced to shifting the burden of costs to the population. The government is already considering the introduction of new fees, taxes and commissions.

In particular, it is about the possible introduction of a fee for the service of bank cards and a revision of the value added tax (VAT) rate. Inflation in Russia may exceed 10% in 2026, which will be one of the highest rates in recent years. The increase in VAT, which has already been discussed in financial circles, may cause a short-term increase in prices by 0. 6-0. 8 percentage points.

At the same time, they are trying to reassure citizens: they say, in the medium term, this step will have a "disinflationary effect". Analysts emphasize: even a small increase in the tax burden in conditions of economic stagnation can cause a new wave of poverty. According to independent research, more than 40% of Russians already spend most of their income on basic needs — food, utilities, and transportation.

New tax initiatives could lead to increased social tensions, especially in regions with low wages. The Russian authorities actually admit that there is a lack of resources in the budget. Instead of spending cuts or reforms, it is preparing to once again "ask" to pay for the crisis of its own citizens. Focus found out how close the Russian Federation came to the economic collapse of its "empire".

Leading expert of the National Institute of Strategic Studies, Ivan Us, explains to Focus that even according to official figures, the budget deficit of the Russian Federation exceeds the planned indicators. In the approved budget for 2025, a deficit of 3. 8 trillion rubles was recorded, but already in the new project for 2026, the government recognizes a shortfall of 6 trillion rubles. This means that the state coffers are emptying faster than even pessimists predicted.

"When there is a hole in the budget, they look for money. And when there is nowhere else to take it, they start looking at citizens' contributions," the expert notes. As far back as 2023, Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov hinted that, as a last resort, the government can use public funds lying in bank accounts. Then this phrase sounded "hypothetically". But now that the deficit is growing, that scenario no longer looks fantastic.

According to Us, it is likely that the state can limit the withdrawal of deposits or even carry out a hidden "expropriation" of part of the funds. If this happens, it will be a repetition of the Soviet scenario of 1991, when people woke up and found out that their savings "passed" into the property of the state. "Fuel coupons have already appeared in several regions of Russia - in the country that is called the "gas station of the world". This is a signal: even basic goods are becoming scarce.

The government is simultaneously reducing subsidies to the agricultural sector, and this may lead to a decrease in the acreage and harvest in 2026. If products become more expensive or scarce, the authorities can introduce food stamps to "regulate distribution," continues Us. As the expert explains, if Russians rush to withdraw money en masse from their accounts, the system may not be able to withstand it.

In that case, the authorities will probably introduce restrictions on the issuance of cash — under the pretext of "protecting banking stability. " Economists are already talking about this openly: financial channels are discussing the possibility of a "temporary freeze" of deposits. "The problem is complicated by the situation with interest rates: Central Bank The Russian Federation lowers the rate, so deposits bring less profit, but loans remain expensive.

People start withdrawing funds from banks, and this can trigger a chain reaction," says Us. From November 1, Russia will introduce a disposal tax on cars, and from January 1 - an increase in VAT by 2 percentage points. This, the expert says, will accelerate inflation: if a product consists of dozens of components, a 2% increase in the price of each component can result in a 20% increase in prices. In such conditions, even the Central Bank is unlikely to take risks. lower the key rate.

By keeping it high, the government will curb inflation — but at the same time it will stifle production and business. "Russia has found itself in a classic economic "Zugzwang": no matter which option the authorities choose, all of them lead to losses. If you lower the rate, inflation will increase; if you increase it, the economy will freeze. They drove themselves into a dead end. In every decision, there is now only the difference between a worse option and an even worse option," Us continues.

Despite serious problems, there is still a margin of safety in Russia. A complete collapse will probably not happen in 2025. However, 2026-2027 may become critical if the trend continues. "Before, Moscow always declared: "now it is difficult, but in a year it will be better. " However, the new budget destroyed even this optimism: the deficit is set for all years until 2028. Moreover, in the budget for 2026, the costs of servicing the public debt exceeded the funding of education and medicine.

And this is the main sign of a systemic crisis," the expert explains. If Ukraine has the support of its partners, then Russia is isolated. North Korea and Belarus are unable to help economically, and China has its own interests and can take advantage of Moscow's weakening to regain the disputed territories of the Far East.

"Thus, Russia is entering a period of protracted economic degradation, which may end in the same way as for the USSR - by the loss of financial control, mass discontent and the collapse of the state system," summarizes Us. We will remind, from March to August of this year, the IMF food and beverage price index decreased by 4. 8%. The largest drop was recorded in the grain category - by 11. 1%, which is associated with high harvest forecasts in the United States and South America.