From the collapse of the Russian Federation to the Korean scenario: 5 options for the end of the war in Ukraine

Based on the circumstances, the analyst Yuri Bogdanov sees 5 possible scenarios of the end of the war. Each of them has a chance to realize - and perhaps in the fall it will become clear to which of them Ukraine. Let's immediately say some important prerequisites that should be taken into account when discussing the end of the war. What is the end of the war? The point of time when both parties refuse to continue the fighting for decades.

The war can end on the borders of 1991, at about the current collision line, worse for us or for Russians. From this definition, we can highlight several possible scenarios: the further the war goes and the more the parties are depleted, the more likely the options are 4 and 5. The first three are closed. Therefore, we need to focus our efforts on guaranteeing a minimum because of quality defense and the ability to attack the Russian rear. These are the best incentives for the Russians to contract.

All these scenarios, in addition to the obvious defeat, leave us enough space to develop our own economy and security system. And if some of the territories remain occupied, then wait for the opportunity to return your own. As the Germans waited. When will the scenario trajectories become clearer? I think we will see it already in the fall 2024 - whether we go to a dead end, to more favorable conditions for us or for the enemy.