There will be no scenario in 1991. As Russia breaks down and that will occur in its place

Analyst Valery Pekar describes eight common myths about the collapse of Russia. At the same time, the disintegration himself seems to be inevitable - he is convinced that this war will not survive. To criticize the idea, you need to make a cartoon from it, then it is easy to ridicule. So they criticize the idea of ​​collapse of the Russian Empire. So I decided to write about several typical myths. No, Russia will not fall apart quickly.

The process of weakening the screws is slow enough, especially given that the main scatter is money, and Russia can still bypass a large part of the sanctions. And even after that, the country will keep inertia, so you will need some trigger like Prigogine 2. 0. No, the collapse of Russia will not happen by itself. This requires systematic efforts on our part, especially on the front, but not only.

Ukraine should become the cordial of the indigenous enslaved peoples of the Russian Federation for freedom and independence, as well as a co -author of a new collective security system in Europe. No, it is not just about national republics. Many new independent states will not have an ethnic basis, their soil will be strong regionalism, such as Ingria or Siberia. Siberia by his colonization model is closer to Australia than Tatarstan. But ethnic republics will be a model for others.

No, it will not be too similar in 1991. Another combination of factors generates another development trajectory. First of all, the breakdown of 30-40 not very defined parts cannot occur in the same way as a breakdown of 15 clearly defined parts. There will be no strong process leaders like the RSFSR or the USSR. There will be certain signs of 1917. No, not new national-democratic leaders will become the first presidents.

The key role in the collapse of the empire will be played by the current Putin regional elites - dignity, as in 1991 the Communists. But national liberation movements are extremely important, they give a picture of the future, and they will take their plus minus 15% in the first free parliamentary elections. No, not all countries will go in one way. The trajectories will be very different in Sokh (Yakutia), the Chechen Republic of Ichkeria, Bashkortostan and more.

Actually, in 1991 Estonia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan went different ways. No, not all countries will have European values. Sakha and Tiva are much closer to Japan and South Korea than to France or Lithuania. But Japan and South Korea are democratic economically developed countries. No, not all countries will become democracy, and not right away. We have been going this route for over 30 years, and we have not yet been a complete democracy.

But in particular, it depends on us who will become the allies of the new states, and this will affect their trajectory. So, it makes no sense to talk about the fast automatic collapse of 1991 and the easy way to democracy and prosperity. However, this does not mean that the last empire of the world can survive the current war. The process of collapse is inevitable, and its speed and format depend in particular on us.