Four key challenges: why in the next half a year situation for the Armed Forces may get worse

The allocation of US assistance is an important point that will continue the fight in 2024-25. However, the key remains the ability of the Russian Federation to replenish losses and have a numerical advantage in living strength and technology, says analyst Rob Lee. The Russian army has a gradual promotion in the East. The American analyst at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research, Rob Lee believes that the Russian Federation will be able to achieve further success in the battlefield.

He wrote about it on his page in X (formerly Twitter). The allocation of funding for $ 61 billion in the United States of Ukraine will allow defense forces to defend themselves in 2024 and 2025. However, it does not solve all the problems of Ukraine. Announced $ 6 billion assistance during Ramstin is part of a long -term strategy.

After the Russian Federation has taken the initiative on the battlefield, Ukraine has faced four key problems: Ukraine makes success in the construction of defense structures and numerous fortifications, but the defense in many important directions is still not developed, which allows the Armed Forces to move forward, considers the analyst.

In general, the allocation of financing to Ukraine for 2024 and the first billion for the Armed Forces will ensure rapid strengthening of Ukraine's defense capability. There are no restrictions on ammunition in the US army's reserves, but also in production capabilities. Supply of shells will help reduce the advantage of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in the amount of shots.

Now 5-6 Russian artillery has one Ukrainian shot, but the United States will not be able to make Ukraine achieve parity. In addition to scarce ammunition, the defense forces will receive other important stocks: anti -tank mines, Javelin and Tow, and more. The attempts of the Russian Federation to storm the coal in 2023 showed how effective the mines against the enemy. The most pressing for Ukraine is the lack of living force, which has aggravated due to reducing supplies from the West.

The Armed Forces are still recruiting people to replenish losses after a summer counter -offensive, the researcher says. This means that Ukrainian brigades do not have enough reserves to respond to the Russian offensive, so the units are pulled from one part of the front to try to stop advancement elsewhere. In the future, this can lead to the exhaustion of the army. It is hoped that the new mobilization law will improve the situation. However, it is equally important than people's recruitment.

"The more time it takes to improve the situation with personnel, the less the likelihood that Ukraine will be able to have an offensive in 2025," Rob Lee said. Meanwhile, the Russian Federation successfully replenishes the losses and has entered the army for 2023 more than 300,000 soldiers. The quality of their preparation is low, but the numerical advantage is also a serious problem. Another critical need for Ukraine is air defense.

Russia has resumed a rocket campaign against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and the UMPC aircraft played one of the key roles in the captured Avdiivka. Also, Russian Su-25 assault rifles work closer to the front line, which can indicate a deficiency of the MSRC and SPR. Therefore, the supply of Ukraine announced to Ukraine is a great need.

The same SPRCs, says the researcher, will be able to push hostile planes from the front line, and Patriot will protect Ukrainian cities and infrastructure from rocket attacks by the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. However, it is unknown whether US production will meet all the needs of Ukraine in protecting against blows, especially in the context of increasing UAV and missile production in Russia.

A separate question is the protection of aerodromes, where Western F-16 fighters will be based. For the occupiers, this will be a priority for attack. Equally important for the Armed Forces are the supply of armored vehicles. A significant number of Ukrainian crews, according to LE, do not have enough armored vehicles, often loss of its loss. So you need M2 Bradley, all -life "Hamvi" and BTRI M113.