Pour in India and Africa. As Russia managed to maintain oil exports

Despite the sanctions, Russia has managed to maintain the volume of oil exports - and there is no sensation, says economist Alexei Kush. After all, did the oil needs of the regions of the world deprived of this resource did not have the indicators of its oil exports? In the summer of 2022, I wrote that it would not be possible to "saw" the Russian Federation from the world energy balance. This forecast was correct.

The main arguments were then: a cluster with the highest excess of consumption over energy production in the structure of the regional energy balance is Asia: 1890 MTOE (conditional oil -equivalent megatons). In second place Europe: 835 mtoe. The total of these two megacclacters require 2725 mtoe imports. Who can give them? There is almost no hope for the Pacific region, Africa and Latin America. They account for the level of free volumes of 296, 209, 49 mtoe, respectively.

Among the largest suppliers are only the Middle East (1127 MTOE) and the CIS countries (789 MTOE, mostly about the Russian Federation and Kazakhstan). The total two of these energy regions can give almost 2000 MTOE, that is, this volume does not yet cover the needs of the EU and Asia. The potential of North America (322 MTOE) only partially depreciates the problem, but does not solve it (Canada's contribution - 245 MTOE and USA - 78 MTOE).

By the way, these indicators clearly demonstrate the inability of the theory that the current energy crisis in the EU is the alleged approaches of states to displace the Russian Federation from the energy market as a major competitor. As we can see, the US does not have the required amount of free energy for the EU. Involvement of Iran by signing between this country, the EU and the United States of the so -called "Iranian dossier or agreement" can reduce the deficit by 78 MTOE.

The key internal energy base of Europe today is Norway (185 MTOE). Purely theoretically, Europe, Canada, USA, Iran, Algeria and Nigeria can be redirected to Europe. We get the total 855 mtoe. These volumes close the needs of Europe, but expose the deficit in Asia, which is supplied to the markets of Canada, Australia and partly by the United States. And this we do not take into account that oil will be accompanied by a shortage of coal, uranium or natural gas.

As for the Russian Federation, it currently has an energy surplus that can be compared to both China and Europe. It is noteworthy that both Europe and China have almost identical levels of scarcity - just over 800 mtoe. For an excess of energy in the Russian Federation at 682 MTOE. Now in the shortage - world oil and biomass reserves. The surplus has stocks of petroleum products, natural gas and coal. But, judging by the current dynamics, in the near future gas reserves can go to a deep minus.

It is this palette of energy deficiency that colors the globe in the colors of neutrality, hidden support for the Russian Federation or sluggish assistance for Ukraine. First of all, it is China, India, Turkey and some European countries. But South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and the United Kingdom are guaranteed by energy resources at the expense of the US, Canada and Australia - and their dependence on Russian deliveries can be relatively easily diversified.