Blackouts may last until the spring of 2026: how the tactics of the Russians have changed, BBS

Russian missiles and drones are flying again at the electric substation, thermal power plant, hydroelectric power plant and thermal power plant. Gas infrastructure is also under attack again. Only since the beginning of October 2025, the enemy launched more than 150 missiles and more than 2 thousand drones on our energy system. Because of this, Ukraine has been living with blackout schedules for about a month. In the autumn of 2025, Russia once again changed the strategy of "energy terror".

If in the fall and winter of 2022-23 the Russians tried to take advantage of the weakness of Ukrainian air defense, now Moscow is attacking more "inventively", trying to feel the weak points of the Ukrainian energy system. In particular, Russia decided to focus on attempts to "detach" separate regions from the unified Ukrainian energy system, primarily the front-line and border regions in the east: Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Poltava, and Zaporizhia.

What's more, now the Russian Federation uses up to several dozens of attack drones and ballistic missiles to attack one object at the same time, which are extremely difficult for Ukrainian air defense to shoot down. And the combat part of the "Shaheed" has doubled to 90 kg, meanwhile, the ballistics have improved their accuracy and the ability to evade anti-aircraft fire.

A direct hit by several such missiles or "shaheeds" can actually lead to the complete destruction and shutdown of the energy facility. To protect the energy system, the Ukrainian authorities started a large-scale and expensive campaign to build protective structures as early as 2023. However, after almost three years, the state and quality of this protection still raise questions among experts.

Ukrenergo is responsible for one part of the transformer substations, which are critical for current transmission, and the Agency for Reconstruction and Development of Infrastructure is responsible for the other. "Ukrhydroenergo" is responsible for hydro generation facilities, "Energoatom" for nuclear facilities, "Ukrzaliznytsia" for power facilities on railways, local authorities for thermal power plants (CHP), and so on.

Because of this, work on different objects took place at different rates, and protective shelters on them had different levels of protection and quality of materials. The former head of Ukrenergo, Volodymyr Kudrytskyi, whom Zelenskyi publicly called one of the culprits of the "insufficient security" of the Ukrainian energy system, says that some departments started building protection for energy facilities only at the end of last year.

A number of officials and experts related to the energy sector consider it quite possible to pass this winter without blackouts and "apocalyptic scenarios". In particular, the executive director of the largest Ukrainian energy company DTEK, Dmytro Saharuk, believes that the situation is "under control" and should remain so throughout the winter period. "The situation is difficult, but it is under control.

A lot of people are working, a lot of time is being spent now to eliminate the consequences of the damage caused by the Russian attacks. I am sure that, in principle, thanks to the hard work of hundreds of thousands of people in the energy sector, we will be able to establish control over the situation, maintain it and ensure a normal winter," Sakharuk said.