They are in no hurry. How many Ukrainians will stay in Europe in anticipation of the end of the war

The largest number of Ukrainians was adopted by Germany (1 251 245 people, 29. 0%of the total in the EU), Poland (954 795 people, 22. 1%) and the Czech Republic (373 035 people, 8. 7%). Ukrainian refugees will have special protection in the European Union at least by March 4, 2025, the European Council reports. Two years out of three possible ones, and the longer Ukrainians are in Europe, the less likely they have to return home.

Refugees adapt to new conditions, find work, children get used to new educational institutions and to teach in a foreign language. And psychologists say: after two years of "new life" returning home will be perceived by the psyche as a new emigration. After two years of "new life" returning home will be perceived by the psyche, how new emigration Ukraine is interested in being returned home as soon as possible, otherwise there will be no one to restore the country.

Experts say that the return of every 100,000 Ukrainians home gives a 0. 5%GDP, and Ukraine needs this money as ever. So, if it was previously returning to Ukraine after the end of the fighting, now that the terms and criteria for the end of the war are blurred, the Ukrainian authorities are looking for a way to make refugees return home now.

Recently, OP Sergey Leshchenko has expressed the opinion that European countries should suspend Ukrainian refugees - this will encourage them to return to their homeland and raise the domestic economy. "Retrants would not have to fight in trenches. But they can buy Ukrainian products in a supermarket in Ukraine and pay for an apartment rent in Kiev, use polyclinics and pharmacies and pay taxes so we can finance schools.

Your money is missing in the economy and the situation becomes more difficult, "Leshchenko said. Later, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy actually supported this opinion in an interview with the German TV channel. "It was better for Germany to help Ukrainians by giving money to the budget of Ukraine, and then Ukraine had redistributed this money depending on where the person is," Zelensky noted.

The desire of the Ukrainian authorities to return Ukrainians home is quite clear if you recall negative demographic trends that began before the start of a full -scale war. First of all, it is about reducing the number of people of working age. If millions of taxpayers do not return to Ukraine, it can be a real disaster. Unfortunately, there is currently no single policy in Ukraine to resolve the problem with the economy and the demographic crisis.

The problem is exacerbated by the fact that many European countries have opposite goals for refugees from Ukraine. And although power in different EU member states may have different interests and positions, on the example of Germany, which has decided to give refugees simplified conditions for obtaining citizenship, one can see that even countries with powerful economies do not mind working Ukrainian migrants to remain with them and to be able They were lifted by GDP.

During the informal meeting of the EU Council on Justice and Internal Affairs, which took place at the end of January, the Secretary of State of Belgium on Asylum and Migration Nicole de Moore stated that the war in Ukraine is far from completing, but Europe should be ready for the future.

"Even if we do not know what the situation will be in March 2025, we have to prepare for various scenarios - in the interests of our friends in Ukraine and in the interests of people who left Ukraine," DW de Mur quoted.

The publication, referring to the Senior Researcher at the Center for European Research, Vita Novotny, notes that Ukrainian refugees in the EU have higher professional qualifications and education than the local population, and in view of cultural features, they are better and faster assimilated than other refugees. Therefore, combined with the growing personnel famine in the EU, the interest of European countries is obvious to Ukraine.

"This year may well be a year of change for the governments of European countries that have accepted Ukrainian refugees," said Martin Kolodzeychik's focus, director of the international recruitment of the EWL migration platform. and Poland Administration begins to work on the creation of a migration strategy for Poland for 2025-2030. And in general, Europe is working on changes in refugees not only from Ukraine.

The EU is approaching the completion of migration reform and asylum before the election of 2024. And the upgrade of the EU migration policy, and these changes will also affect Ukrainians. " Ukrainian refugees in the EU have higher professional qualifications and education than the local population, they are better and faster assimilated than other refugees at the end of last year in The New York Times an article has been published: two years of a full -scale war is a turning point.

And right now, refugees have to decide on the choice - to return home or stay in Europe forever. But is it really? The psychologist Alexander Alekseeva believes that it is unlikely that two years of a full -scale war can be considered the turn, after which it is necessary to determine the plans for later life. "First, you can think both five and ten years-it all depends on what the person makes the decision. Secondly, even making a decision-that This is done.

For example, a person decided to return home and there is no house, he is destroyed. In this case, a big idea that is not everyone is ready to return to return, and be ready to return to the dilapidated city and serve this idea. So, in fact, that's , what a person wants to do, and what he can do is different things, sometimes opposite.

It is not to mention that after two years of another life, returning home will be perceived by the psyche as a new emigration, "the psychology noted in the psychology focus comments. According to Oleksandra Alekseeva, attachment to dates, attempts to form statistics and make forecasts - all these are ways to structure our lives and understand what is very difficult to understand.

Although it is possible to "count war" not in years, but in victims, the number of broken connections, the number of crippled lives. "It's like a oil stain that spills and hides all living things," a psychologist has given a good example. "You can measure its diameter, and you can imagine how much alive it has fallen asleep.

" Binding to dates, attempts to form statistics and make forecasts - all ways to structure our lives and make sense that it is very difficult to comprehend at the same time the director of recruiting EWL migration platform Mariana Semeniuk does not exclude that 2024 may well be for Ukrainian refugees a year Waiting and choice.

"People will observe the situation on the front and the prospects of end of the war to understand what decision to make for themselves - said the expert in conversation with focus. " Refugees will take time not only to make sure that in Ukraine is safe, but also to decide what to do with the life they have already started building abroad. " One way or another, all refugees in Ukraine will not be right back, as they say different surveys and research.

For example, in the fall of 2023, the Center for Economic Strategy published a study stating that, according to various scenarios, 1. 3 million to 3. 3 million Ukrainians can remain abroad. "The non -return of Ukrainians will have a significant impact on the Ukrainian economy, which can lose from 2. 7% to 6. 9% of their GDP every year," the CES said.

However, the assessment of the number of those who do not plan to return is not static, because the longer the fighting lasts, the more citizens make decisions fully and permanently assimilate in the country that gave shelter. With each new year of the war, the number of those who do not plan to return to Ukraine grows about it and Scientist Ella Libanova, who recently explained in conversation with focus: after the war the population can be reduced by a maximum of 3-4 million.