Peaceful "holidays": why the Kremlin refuses a diplomatic settlement and what will happen next

"Hypothetically speaking, it (a meeting between Trump and Putin - Focus) is possible, but at this moment there is no need for it. At this moment, there is a need for very painstaking work on the details of the settlement problem," he noted. As you know, Donald Trump recently changed his mind to meet with the head of the Kremlin in Budapest and admitted that he is disappointed with the pace of negotiations with the Russian Federation.

At the same time, on the night of Monday, November 3, the American leader said that for him there is no "last straw" that would prove to him that Putin is not ready to end the war he started. In particular, during a conversation with journalists on board Air Force One, the 79-year-old US president said the following: "There is not the last drop here. Sometimes they have to be allowed to fight. And they fight and fight. . . This is a hard war for Putin. He lost a lot of soldiers. Maybe a million.

That's a lot of soldiers. And it's hard for Ukraine. It's hard for both of them, but sometimes you have to let them fight. " Political scientist Oleh Posternak is convinced that the question of peaceful settlement can be put "a big semicolon" at the moment.

"Peskov's statement that the Russian Federation does not see the need for a meeting between Trump and Putin indicates a change in the rhetoric and tactics of the Russians, who previously very cautiously commented on Russian-American relations despite the insulting remarks of the US president about a paper tiger, etc. That is, the Russians did not retaliate. The only thing is that Medvedev allowed himself some remarks, but in his case, it is most likely about some physical deviations.

Now the Russians are changing their tactics. If we talk about why they are doing it, I see several reasons: the rapprochement between Washington and Beijing. After reaching an economic understanding with China, Trump would prefer to build a political dialogue with China, taking into account Hegset's message that the US and the PRC are establishing direct military contact to prevent potential conflicts and de-escalation. conversation with Focus.

The establishment of direct military communication between the USA and China, according to the expert, may mean that the issue of cooperation between the two countries regarding the peaceful settlement of the Russian-Ukrainian war can be discussed through these channels. "Given the American-Chinese rapprochement, the Russians are forced to react - they have no other way out. Currently, we have entered a new military cycle, which will last until April 2026.

Here we are talking about the battle for Pokrovsk and, unfortunately, other cities of Donbass, and about the attempt to advance the Ukrainian-European peace plan of 12 points, and about the fourth round of negotiations in Istanbul.

Even if Turkey again will talk about the exchange of prisoners of war or the return of children, this will not prevent Ukraine from achieving intermediate goals, since there is no need to talk about any wide range of diplomatic negotiations regarding a peaceful settlement until April next year, that is, before the meeting between Trump and Xi," the political scientist concludes.

  Stating in a conversation with Focus that Donald Trump was never able to persuade China to take certain anti-Russian steps, the deputy director of the Agency for Simulation of Situations (AMS) Oleksiy Holobutsky emphasized: "But the extreme statements of the US president on the Russian-Ukrainian war indicate that he is shifting the initiative in this matter to the PRC and will now actually depend very, very much on Beijing.

I think that China, following the previously tested Trump's tactics will also give some time (several months) to Putin to resolve the issue. " In general, according to the expert, at a certain stage the Russian-Ukrainian war may cease to be profitable for China, because the longer it lasts, the greater the probability that Europe, in particular the EU, "will be with America, and not with the PRC.

" Separately, the political scientist emphasizes that official Kyiv should have its own "Chinese policy". "On the Chinese diplomatic front, we are currently a complete failure. Due to a full-scale war, we received a serious subjectivity that we have never had before in history and at the same time we do not use it, in particular, along the Kyiv-Beijing line. And China is also interested in Ukraine as a gateway to the European Union (EU) and we have something to offer the PRC.

That is, we should not be passive idiots who passively observe how the Americans and the Chinese come to an agreement on the Russian-Ukrainian war, but must offer China a formula that will really interest it," states Oleksiy Holobutskyi. As of now, the illusions that the Russian-Ukrainian war can be stopped with a quick diplomatic leap have somewhat dispelled, according to political scientist Oleg Sahakyan.

In particular, in a conversation with Focus, the expert noted: "Russia is not in the mood for negotiations as a tool to end the war. For the Russians, negotiations are solely about how to buy time to improve their military position, which will make it possible to disrupt military support for Ukraine and the introduction of sanctions against the Russian Federation.

Instead, the current situation actualizes the issue of increasing support for Ukraine with weapons and the preparation of more serious sanctions pressure on Russia. We currently have the 19th package with regard to Rosneft, there is hope that the pressure of restrictions will continue, because here we have come out of the deadlock in which we have been for six months.

" Oleg Sahakyan believes that the impasse regarding anti-Russian sanctions on the one hand, and the weakening of military support for Kyiv on the other hand, created "imitation dances regarding peace negotiations. " Meanwhile, as of now, the political scientist emphasizes, the key challenges for Ukraine are rather internal and do not lie in external factors.

Among such challenges, the expert includes, in particular, the need to rethink mobilization approaches, review priorities regarding financial stability in the expenditure part of the budget, and search for new growth points of the wartime economy. As for the external track, now, Oleg Sahakyan assures, the context for Ukraine has been created quite positive.