Lack of confidence and baking rebellion: why Putin is constantly changing the generals

At the beginning of a full -scale invasion of February 24, 2022, Vladimir Putin did not appoint one commander to manage the so -called special military operation in Ukraine, which he announced the day before. Although Valery Gerasimov was considered a real leader, different generals operated on some areas of the front - depending on the region and the military district from which they came to Ukraine. Because the Kremlin thought that Ukraine would be able to win in a few days.

But the plan of fast capture failed. Ukraine has stood for three days and 33 days. Therefore, after the retreat of the Russian troops from the northern regions, Putin delegated to managing the operation of one army general - commander of the Southern Military District, one of the leaders of "operations" in the Russian Federation in Syria Alexander Dvornikov. It happened in early April 2022. It is obvious that such a purpose was hoped in the Kremlin.

"As the Dvornikov Army General has a higher rank than all commanders of the Army involved. This means that no one will discuss his orders, there will Austrian military expert Tom Cooper. Obviously, Dvornikov was counting on - he had to move forward rapidly, providing considerable success to the sacred date for the Kremlin - on May 9, when the Russian Federation celebrates Victory Day in the Second World War. It was about the capture of the whole territory of Donetsk and Luhansk regions.

But Dvornikov did not cope, replaced by Gennady Zhidko at the end of May. He is a former commander of the Eastern Military District, Deputy Minister of Defense of Russia for Military and Political Work. According to experts, it was this district that was considered the most complete and capable, so he had to increase efficiency. Zhidko's command was remembered by the rapid liberation of the Kharkiv region, so Putin changed this general to another - Sergei Surovikin.

The latter has already created a special position - commander of the Russian Federation in Ukraine (officially united troops). Of course, the head of the Gerasov Gerasimov General Staff could be appointed to this position, but it was believed that the failures of the Russian Federation in March 2022 were strongly hit by his image. Sergey Surovkin was known for participating in the Second Russo-Chechen War and "Military Operations" in Syria.

He was called "Aleppo Cat" and "General Armageddon" for the devastating bombing of Syrian cities and civilians. Even on the day of the appointment, experts said that the General stands for mass missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure, including civilian. And within a few days, winged missiles flew to Ukrainian cities.

Missile shelling did not affect Russia's loss of control over the part of the Right -Bank Kherson region in November, so on January 11, 2023, Surovikina Putin withdrew from his post and appointed Valery Gerasimov, a new commander of the Russian Federation in Ukraine. Thus, during the part -time year, Putin changed the overall command of the "operation" in Ukraine several times. We no longer mention frequent changes in certain areas of the front.

In the report of the American Institute for War Study (ISW), analysts say that Vladimir Putin acts as Joseph Stalin during the Second World War - both rulers with limited military experience, but envy in the military exploits of others. Putin could not assume that the second name would be in the victory, except for him, as Stalin removed his time Marshal of the USSR Georgy Zhukov.

"Putin probably tried to introduce himself as the commander -in -chief and the inspirer of a successful invasion of Ukraine. The captured Russian military plans showed that the Kremlin expected that Russian forces would capture Kiev in a matter of days, and Putin probably wanted to declare this rapid invasion of personal geopolitical victory, - Experts of ISW explain.

- Putin has no military experience, which may have further contributed to his decision not to appoint a commander for his invasion, who could move him, attributing his merits in the expected dramatic victory. " Thus, Putin does his best to maintain control of the situation and not to give the military the fullness of power. And that is why the first eight months of a full -scale war of Putin, despite the defeat, did not appoint an individual commander.

But even when he appointed, he still allowed them to combine positions and perform double functions. In particular, the Dvornikov and the goal, in addition to the management of the grouping of Russian troops in Ukraine, also remained the heads of their military districts, Surovikin remained commander of the air-space forces of the Russian Federation, and Gerasimov retains the position of chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation.

ISW analysts say Putin's commitment to staff change is a symbol of his inner reign. He has long been rotating the staff in government positions to ensure that no figure would accumulate too much political influence and retain support among competing factions. The President of the Russian Federation also regularly avoids the direct release of officials, transferring them to positions lower. This may happen to encourage them to win his commitment again and have a chance for a new high purpose.

And even when he was in office, he would seem, the one to whom Putin trusts all all - Valery Gerasimov, he did not receive unconditional support. To maintain the balance, he was regularly criticized by the leader of the Wagner PEC Yevgeny Prigogin and Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov. Constant rotation in the military command leads to disorganization of the army, and Ukrainian analysts also say.

Military expert Anton Mikhnenko suggests that there are several reasons why Putin is constantly changing the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. And the first - that the orders be obeyed. "From the part of the soldiers, the words do not have the inability to do something that lacks weapons and equipment that someone is not ready to carry out certain operations," he says.

"The military leadership of the Russian Federation, which Putin appoints, must do everything he thinks for need. Undoubtedly, he evaluates the effectiveness of various generals who perform his tasks during military aggression against Ukraine. It is obvious that after situations in Kherson or Kharkiv region, the generals changed according to how effective they were. " When Ukraine failed to seize in three days, the search for someone who could lead the further offensive began in Russia.

"At first they searched for individual sectors, agreed on actions, but it did not work," says the focus of the expert of the Ukrainian Institute of the Future Ivan Stupak. "Then they appointed and changed people. There is no single reason why they are being changed. Internal quarrels, Kadyrov with Prigogin. intrigued against General Alexander Lapin (commander of the Central Military District of the Russian Federation - Ed. ), knocked him away from office, then returned.

That is, they have their own "Santa Barbara": they are removed, removed, returned. This indicates the lack of a strategy in the Kremlin and a holistic understanding . All this chaotic turbulently affects all subordinates. They were told for 20 years that Putin Beauty, will do everything himself, suddenly saw how he changes one, third, tenth commanding, and victories still not. It is already cool.

Motivation is lost, people realize that there is no point in jumping out, because the leadership will change again. There is no will and vision. " But at the same time, the Kremlin understands that Putin's "replacement" lava is not so large - quite few people capable of managing troops, carrying out military offensive operations, especially at the present stage of war development. That is why Putin is forced to return some characters to his posts and do the rock.

"The Russian Federation is not accustomed to removing from positions. There they are removed exclusively for disloyalty. Mikhnenko also recalls that all these generals who are now managing the troops trained in Soviet times and in Soviet approaches. "They are understood that they can only conduct offensive military operations on the books they taught. Therefore, we know the weaknesses of those generals who now manage offensive operations. Therefore, Ukrainians can carry out their own," he said.

Change of leadership to the hand of Ukraine. Because, after the failures on the front of the Russian army, the generals tried to realize in what situation they are, how many were needed human resources and military equipment, how to proceed - the Ukrainian army was able to carry out constituent actions. After them, there was a change in leadership, which made a misunderstanding in the ranks of the Russian army.

Among the generals, who in the Kremlin, despite the defeat most trust, experts call Valery Gerasimov. His arrival to the post of head of "his" as a coordinator of all forces and means. "He is the most intellectual. It described the strategy of hybrid wars. At once, when the change, we saw that the Russian military began to act more coordinated and more in a military, as written in books," said military expert Anton Mikhnenko. a mixture of classical surgery and hybrid approach Gerasimov.

But serious shifts in the context of offensive operations, as we see, he did not bring. Under Bakhmut, not even the Russian army operates, but a private military campaign "Wagner" - moves a hundred meters a day. The front also does not happen, so I do not rule out that once Gerasimov will fly from there too. " "Mr. Valery Zaluzhny called him a military theorist whose work he read. He may be good as a theorist, but as a practitioner not very. The USSR.

The advantage of our military is the desire to apply Western experience and delegation of powers to place. The Ukrainian army is different from Russian. " The Russians need time - sometimes a few days, to harmonize actions. For example, they could not navigate when the Ukrainian army began to release the Kharkiv region unexpectedly and quickly. "They need to agree, agree, write a report, wait a few days for it to be considered. Then they can refuse. Then they go down. So they lose time.

They are good for us when they are bureaucratically raped," Stupak comments. Experts, speaking about the peculiarities of the Russian Army governance, note that Russian President Vladimir Putin is too deeply and carefully controls the course of the war. "The military was planning, and the political leadership interferes here - they break their structures and operations," Stupak continues. "It is profitable for Ukraine.

It is also not to forget that when changing management changes not only one commander. New, but such perturbations for the military are painful. " And the main explanation of such behavior of the Russian president can be called the fear of losing control, which means that because of lack of attention and trust, Putin will try to replace in his environment. That is why he is so profitable to have undoubtedly loyal people, without political ambitions. Such as Defense Minister Sergei Shoig.

"At this stage, Shoigu is the only person who enjoys Putin's extraordinary trust," Stupak assures. "What is being wounded is a trifle. Shoggy in office. In the 2000s, when they created a" Unified Russia "party when Just a young energetic politician Putin appeared, the political force was set by Shoigu. Nominal. The party got a good result, and Shoggy was transferred to the post of governor. He was silent and left. Shogga is missing political ambitions. Putin does not feel threats from him.

There are very few people who can fully trust. He realizes that if Shogie is assigned a new young politician, the latter can make a rebellion, as Gaddafi made in Libya in his time, having come to power. Putin is afraid that he will become weak, And then a helicopter with Mykola Patrushev, Dmitry Medvedev and the head of Rosgvardia will arrive at Valdai and say, "Vladimir, we turn off government communication. " And this option is possible, although theoretically, at least in two cases.

"The more successful the Ukrainian offensive operations will be, the more territories we will release, the more it will undermine the stability of the Russian regime," says military expert Anton Mikhnenko. "Russia has already spread so well in Russia that it is so twisted that it is already pushed by military Political leadership to radical action. Already at the household level they offer to use tactical nuclear weapons.

And when society begins to press on power, and the authorities understand that they cannot take advantage of these opportunities, because there is some political external pressure, tension increases - an explosion may occur " .

Mikhnenko recalls the story: "After the end of the First World War, when crowds of the military of the Russian Empire began to return from the war in the territory of the Russian Empire in Ukraine and Russia, the military was also disturbed - the war was over, and the results were not. It was this moment that the Bolsheviks were used when they began impose ideas to the military who have returned from the front.